
An assault on the value of a college
education is coming from an unlikely corner:
prominent liberal economists. Where their
ideological predecessors fought to open
higher education’s doors to the
disadvantaged, influential voices on the
left have lately been declaring that the
earning power of a college degree is overblown.
Sadly,
this misguided message is being trumpeted
by some pretty impressive thinkers. Jared
Bernstein of the Economic Policy Institute
moans that the wage premium for skills
has fallen during the current business
cycle. Princeton University’s Paul
Krugman goes even further, saying that
not only are college-educated workers
not sharing in the nation’s recent
prosperity but that “improving our
educational system is not the way to mitigate
inequality.” Even former Federal
Reserve Vice-Chairman Alan Blinder recently
warned that offshoring will so shrink
the job market for the college-educated
in the United States that many students
would do better to pursue a trade or face-to-face
personal service.
But this recent liberal cooling of opinion
toward college seems to have more to do
with politics than economics. By asserting
that a college degree may no longer guarantee
a good job, these policy wonks (many still
fuming since Republicans took the Congress
and President Bill Clinton lurched to
the right in hot pursuit of a second term)
can argue that only an expansion of the
welfare state and national industrial
policies can save us from global economic
forces.
Yet casting aspersions on the value of
college in order to resurrect shopworn
ideas is not only factually inaccurate,
it’s also politically reckless.
Americans across the political spectrum
welcome the nation’s increasing
reliance on education as the arbiter of
economic opportunity because, in theory,
education allows us to expand merit-based
opportunity without surrendering individual
responsibility. We each have to do our
own homework to make the grades that get
us into college, and thus in line for
the “good” jobs. Education
has become America’s Third Way between
runaway markets on the right and welfare
state dependency on the left.
The wage advantage of a college degree
over a high school diploma increased by
83 percent from 1979 to 2003, or about
$1 million over a working career. And
advantages for college grads have grown
over the period despite an 11 percent
increase, equal to about 33 million new
job seekers, in the supply of college-educated
workers. Krugman worries that the college
wage premium increased by only 1 percent
per annum since 1975. Only? Where I come
from, an increase of 1 percent per annum
compounded over 30 years is real money.
A recent pause in the growth of earnings
advantages for college grads seems to
have fueled much of the current debate.
Average wages of college grads did fall
3 percent, or about $1,600, from 2001
to 2004. But such lulls are common in
wage growth: Wages for the college-educated
declined in the “jobless”
economic recovery of the mid-1990s, only
to be followed by an explosion in both
job growth and wage advances later in
the decade. Moreover, the decline scenario
may be a timing fluke: Use 2000 rather
than 2001 as the base year and average
wages of college grads actually increased
by about $2,000, or 4 percent, by 2004.
Still, higher wages aren’t the
only payoff in the workplace. Nearly 95
percent of full-time workers ages 25 to
54 with at least a bachelor’s degree
have healthcare coverage, while about
90 percent have retirement plans. Such
coverage drops to 81 percent and 80 percent,
respectively, for similarly aged workers
with high school diplomas.
With the demise of the blue-collar economy
(which let workers with modest skills
earn middle-class salaries), college is
no longer just a preferred avenue to professional
careers; it is increasingly the only route
to economic success. I’ll bet that
none of those who are knocking higher
ed’s value are telling their own
kids to skip college. Until they do, their
public pronouncements just add up to a
lot of bad advice for other people’s
children.
Anthony P. Carnevale, a senior fellow
at Education Sector, is a former economist
for the Senate Democratic Policy Committee.
|